Nine to Ten: First Link in the Chain?

It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link in the chain of destiny can be handled at a time. - Winston Churchill

SITREP on the Past, Present & Future
Part 1 - Past & Present (Part 2 - Future, published tomorrow)

Entering into 2010, it occurs to me I have left many unanswered questions on the table from your emails and letters. In response I offer up the following ill-conceived, unfounded and disorganized stream of unconsciousness.

The Past

"How have you come to this lowly state?" asks the Old Man to Ralphie in A Christmas Story, and many of you have asked how an Old Soldier ends up in Baghdad, alone and unafraid? I have no one to blame but myself (a very unusual admission for me to offer up, I can usually find someone...). As I have said to those who would listen, no one has ever worked harder to get themselves deployed to a war zone. Once I volunteered to go, the best alternative to moving the family from the Springs or retiring, I was faced with nothing but uphill battles. I had to secure permission from the Commander at NORTHCOM and find my own replacement for a year. The replacement turned out to be the 'long pole in the tent' - but along came the perfect candidate at the right time and my ill-formed plan took off. I deployed in late July 2009 for a twelve month deployment, assigned to Multi-National Force - Iraq.

Sandy asked me last night whether "has this been worth it, are you making a difference?" - a fine question that I attempt to ignore on a daily basis. I think the answer to both parts of the question is a definitive "I think so." I think the most important task I accomplish day-to-day is protecting the three staff officers who work for me from the insanity that swirls around us like Iraqi flies (very persistent little boogers, by the way; not more abundant than Aussie flies but much more focused on openings in your head). I'm not always successful but I'd guess my batting average is better than most of my colonel peers.

For the mission, we do make a difference but it is in a very tangential way. Through our partners, the electricity experts in the Iraq Transition Assistance Office (ITAO), we are able to give our US military leadership the best picture of the Government of Iraq's efforts and plans to improve its delivery of the essential service, electricity, to the Iraqi people. This sounds fairly simple but I assure you - it is not. My staff is able to create a fairly coherent picture out of disparate, sometimes seemingly unrelated pieces of the puzzle. I often think we have a better picture of what is actually happening than the Ministry of Electricity.

Back to the point, does the military effort in this sector "make a difference?" There is no doubt the ITAO guys directly impact the Ministry, but I could argue our impact either way. General Odierno, an impressive guy and exemplary strategic leader, is much better informed and can apply some level of influence to the Iraqi leadership to "get on with it" in any number of electricity-related areas. If he didn't exert his influence in that arena (and he may not now...) would it be a show stopper? Probably not. We do assist the ITAO effort and that is probably where the job satisfaction really lies, when I sense it.

I can say unequivocally that the US is making a difference. Without getting into the politics of our re-engagement in Iraq, I really feel that someday Iraq will be a source of pride for the US. I believe, if it can just get it/keep it together for the next 12-24 months, Iraqis will place nation slightly ahead of sect and clan to embrace democracy and its associated freedoms (recognizing that they may look different than ours). I predict, and this is either bold or naive, that someday, somewhere in Iraq a statue of George W. Bush (or maybe better an American Soldier or Marine) will be erected to recognize the seed that was planted here, that sprouted into a better Iraq.

The Present


The theme right now in Iraq is 'transition' and we are up to our eyeballs in it. We are now "United States Forces - Iraq" (USF-I) as our coalition partners have either moved on or transitioned to training missions. Every aspect of the mission is in some form of transition - from needed, anticipatory internal change to USF-I to the transfer of responsibilities across the spectrum (security to essential services) to the Iraqis. What began with Bremer and the CPA, ends over the next 12-18 months as the State Department assumes a more normal (but not normal) set of Embassy tasks.


We know there will be stumbling and bumbling along this path, but I think most of us feel that Iraq can and will be successful in its efforts to become a stable and secure republic? The two key tasks to watch for are: 1) a legitimate election is conducted (every indication is that it will be) with effective compromise within the new Council of Representatives to seat a government by late Summer 2010 and; 2) newly tapped Iraqi oil begins to flow into the world market within 5 or 6 years. Although a diverse economy in Iraq is needed for the long haul, Iraq desperately requires the revenue it can garner from its oil reserves soon.

The cornerstone, and most of the foundation, is in place - paid for by much Iraqi, US and coalition partner blood, sweat, tears and investment. As I have said in early blogs, Iraqis have become sick of the violence and now see those who perpetrate it as terrorists and criminals. The "surge" did work, regardless of the cause-effect relationship, and that success can be seen in downtown Baghdad today where Iraqis have returned to the parks and the markets in force. When violence erupts in the form of a bomb blast, the nation does not look at the US troops as the cause or the Iraqi Security Force or police as the failure (although the people are expecting better results, a demanding but fair requirement) - they pick up and continue their lives.

My "present" has been well described in early postings. I am overfed, clean, dry, fairly safe, well entertained, well exercised and in good contact with Sandy, Cooper, family and friends. I am approaching the 50% point in the tour - if you exclude an upcoming trip to Albany, New York and my R&R leave - and my mental state is pretty good. Your mind can do some ugly things after three "duck & covers" before bed, as you lay inside your thinly shielded metal box, but once I can compartmentalize those thoughts I can usually get to sleep pretty quick. I have nothing to complain about (although I will) in comparison to my brothers and sisters in the FOBs and COBs around Iraq and Afghanistan, so please ensure that you focus your thoughts and prayers on them. It is an honor to know that I occupy the same battle space as these amazing young men and women.

Tomorrow's blog will deal with the "Future." Ya'll come back now, ya hear...

Grace & peace -
Chris

We are all worms, but I do believe that I am a glow-worm.
- Winston Churchill